Valuation
We assessed SGJ on two pillars. First, we sought to ascertain what the business is independently worth. Second, we sought to determine whether the J$61.50 cash offer represents a fair offer to minority shareholders.
While the work produced a base fair value range of J$56.19–J$60.05 (which gives a weighted average fair value target of J$58.44) from the three core valuation methodologies, the wider valuation range derived from the scenario analysis is useful in assessing the offer price of J$61.50.
Our valuation range for Scotia Group Jamaica runs from J$45.57 per share in a blended Bear scenario to J$68.71 in a blended Bull scenario, while the three base-case methodology outputs converge within a tighter J$56.19–J$60.05 fair value range, broadly in line with the current market price of J$57.54. The wider scenario range reflects roughly 22% downside in the Bear case against 18% upside in the Bull case, implying a broadly symmetric risk/reward skew around fair value base case. The base fair value range is anchored by three methodologies: Residual Income (J$60.05), Dividend Discount Model (J$57.89), and Justified P/B (J$56.19), which converge within a tight J$3.86 band, lending confidence to the valuation despite differing modelling approaches. We view the stock as fairly valued at current levels, with the scenario spread capturing the principal sensitivities to key ROE, growth, and discount rate assumptions. The offer price of J$61.50 is above the base fair value range but within the wider scenario range of J$45.57–J$68.71.
| Close Price | J$57.54 |
| Offer Price | J$61.50 |
| Fair Value Range | J$56.19 - $60.05 |
| Dividend Yield | 3.13% |
| Trailing P/B | 1.16x |
| Trailing P/B | 1.06x |
| Trailing P/E | 8.62x |
| Recommendation | MARKETWEIGHT |
Date: July 31, 2026
See Full Equity Analysis
